Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often regarded as the next general-purpose technology with a rapid, penetrating, and far-reaching use over a broad number of industrial sectors. The main feature of new general-purpose technology is to enable new ways of production that may increase productivity. However, to date, only a few studies have investigated the likely productivity effects of AI at the firm-level, presumably due to limited data availability. We exploit unique survey data on firms’ adoption of AI technology and estimate its productivity effects with a sample of German firms. We employ both a cross-sectional dataset and a panel database. To address the potential endogeneity of AI adoption, we also implement IV estimators. We find positive and significant associations between the use of AI and firm productivity. This finding holds for different measures of AI usage, i.e., an indicator variable of AI adoption, and the intensity with which firms use AI methods in their business processes.
This paper analyses the link between the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and innovation performance in firms. Based on firm-level data from the German part of the Community Innovation Survey (CIS) 2018, we examine the role of different AI methods and application areas in innovation. The results show that 5.8% of firms in Germany were actively using AI in their business operations or products and services in 2019. We find that the use of AI is associated with annual sales with world-first product innovations in these firms of About €16 billion (i.e. 18% of total annual sales of world-first innovations). In addition, AI technologies have been used in process innovation that contributed to About 6% of total annual cost savings of the German business sector. Firms that apply AI broadly (using different methods for different applications areas) and that have already several years of experience in using AI obtain significantly higher innovation results. These positive findings on the role of AI for innovation have to be interpreted with caution as they refer to a specific country (Germany) in a situation where AI started to diffuse rapidly.
Work in progress:
(including completed working papers)
Parental personality and child skills formation [Job Market Paper] Presented at: TSE Economics of Education Workshop 2024, New Advances in Family Economics Workshop (poster) 2024, AFÉPOP 2024, Tilburg Structural Econometrics Seminar 2024, LEER 2024, Leuven Applied Micro Workshop 2024, Household Economics Gathering 2024 Abstract · Working paper · Watch video
This paper studies the influence of parental personality on child development. I exploit detailed individual-level data from the PSID and its Child Development and Wellbeing Supplements on parental personality, children’s skills, wages, and time-use decisions. The empirical results suggest a systematic gap in cognitive and non-cognitive skills between children of parents with different personalities. This skills gap increases as children grow older and remains significant after accounting for traditional family attributes. To provide a rationale for these observed patterns, I estimate a life cycle model that incorporates parental personality and considers household decisions with endogenous formation for a child’s cognitive and non-cognitive skills. In this framework, parental personality affects the monetary and time inputs in children as well as the type of interactions between parents and children. The simulations indicate that most of the influence of personality on a child’s skills is through its effect on the quality of parent-child interactions. Also, cash transfer policies that do not account for the productivity associated with parental personality can have unexpected, negative effects on child development.
Does personality affect the allocation of resources within households? Presented at: EALE 2023, EEA-ESEM 2023, ESPE 2023, TADC 2023, ECORES Summer School 2022 Abstract · Working paper STATUS:R&R at Review of Economics of the Household
This paper studies the influence of parental personality on child development. I exploit detailed individual-level data from the PSID and its Child Development and Wellbeing Supplements on parental personality, children’s skills, wages, and time-use decisions. Our empirical results suggest a systematic gap in cognitive and noncognitive skills between children of parents with different personalities. This skills gap increases as children grow older and remains significant after accounting for traditional family attributes. To provide a rationale for these observed patterns, I estimate a lifecycle model that incorporates parental personality and considers household decisions with an endogenous technology for a child’s cognitive and noncognitive skills. In this framework, parental personality affects the monetary and time inputs in children as well as the type of interactions between parents and children. Our simulations suggest that most of the influence of personality on a child’s skills is through its effect on the quality of parent-child interactions. Also, policies that do not account for the productivity associated with parental personality can have unexpected, negative effects on child development.
Evidence on the adoption of artificial intelligence: the role of skills shortage in German firms
Joint with Dirk Czarnitzki, Paolo Carioli Presented at: CISS 2023 Abstract · Working paper STATUS:Under revision
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is considered to be the next general-purpose technology, with the potential of performing tasks commonly requiring human capabilities. While it is commonly feared that AI replaces labor and disrupts jobs, we instead investigate the potential of AI for overcoming increasingly alarming skills shortages in firms. We exploit unique German survey data from the Mannheim Innovation Panel on both the adoption of AI and the extent to which firms experience scarcity of skills. We measure skills shortage by the number of job vacancies that could not be filled as planned by firms, distinguishing among different types of skills. To account for the potential endogeneity of skills shortage, we also implement instrumental variable estimators. Overall, we find a positive and significant effect of skills shortage on AI adoption, the breadth of AI methods, and the breadth of areas of application of AI. In addition, we find evidence that scarcity of labor with academic education relates to firms exploring and adopting AI.
Personality traits, the marriage market, and household behavior
Joint with Mariia Kovaleva Presented at: AFÉPOP 2024, SES 2024, Belgian Day Labour Economists 2023, Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics 2023, Household Economics Gathering 2023, ENTER Jamboree 2023 Abstract · Working paper
We develop an empirical framework to analyze the dynamic effect of personality traits in marriage market patterns and intrahousehold decisions. We exploit detailed information at the individual level from the HILDA survey about consumption, labor supply, time use, and personality traits (as measured by the Big Five). First, we document that personality types are related to marital and divorce patterns, time allocated to both market and non-market labor activities, and the evolution of earnings. To rationalize these empirical facts, we build a life-cycle model that integrates endogenous household formation and collective household choices under limited commitment. Our framework allows personality to affect both wage processes and individual preferences. In the latter, personality traits enter indirectly through household production and the utility of marriage (match quality). We use the estimates of our model to conduct counterfactuals associated with intrahousehold behavior.
What explains the gains from a stable marriage? A revealed preference analysis
Joint with Laurens Cherchye Abstract · Draft soon
This paper conducts a structural empirical analysis to determine the relative importance of various characteristics in explaining marriage market outcomes over time. We exploit detailed information at the individual level from the HILDA survey about consumption, labor supply, time use, and personal attributes. We test for efficient household consumption within stable marriages by applying revealed preference restrictions to our sample. Identifying the intrahousehold decision structure allows us to measure both material and nonmaterial gains from marriage, including the sharing rule, public consumption, and unobserved match quality. We analyze the evolution of these marriage market outcomes over time and assess the explanatory power of individual characteristics that include cognitive skills, noncognitive skills, health status, and several demographics.
Artificial Intelligence and the demand for labor: Evidence from German firm-level
Joint with Dirk Czarnitzki, Bettina Peters Presented at: Workshop on the Economics of Innovation 2023, ZEW/MaCCI 2022 Abstract · Draft soon
Do Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its rapid penetration and far-reaching use across all economic sectors will cause unemployment? This paper exploits unique survey data on firms’ adoption of AI technology and AI methods and estimates their impact on the demand for labor using a sample of German firms. We extend existing models relating firms’ employment to innovation by adding AI technology to product and process innovation measures in empirical models of labor demand. Overall, we find positive and significant effects of AI adoption on labor demand. In particular, we observe that the impact of AI dominates the positive employment effect of (traditional) product innovations. We also find that machine learning among different types of AI technologies seem to be the main driver for increased demand for labor. To account for the potential endogeneity of AI adoption, we implement an IV strategy.
Technological change and intrahousehold resources allocation Draft soon
The arguable evolution of Chilean income inequality
Joint with Leonardo Cáceres Draft soon
Legal cohabitation, household insurance, and female labor supply
Joint with Valeria Cordova, Wietse Leleu Draft soon
Female human capital investment and household dynamics
Joint with Marcos Balmaceda Draft soon
